The stage is set for the 2025 Nippon Professional Baseball Wild Card Series, officially known as the Climax Series First Stage, a best-of-three matchup with every game played at the higher seed’s home park. This year’s games will be held on Saturday, October 11, and Sunday, October 12, with a decisive Game 3, if necessary, on Monday, October 13.

The winners will advance to the League Championship Series (Climax Series Final Stage), beginning October 15, to face the regular-season pennant winners, who start with an automatic “ghost win” advantage. Let’s preview the Central League matchup between the Yomiuri Giants and Yokohama DeNA BayStars, and the Pacific League clash between the Orix Buffaloes and Hokkaido Nipponham Fighters.

Yomiuri @ DeNA
Overview
Pitchers
Position Players
Prediction

ORIX @ Nipponham
Overview
Pitchers
Position Players
Prediction

(3) Yomiuri Giants @ (2) Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Best of 3 Series | All Games at Yokohama Stadium
Season Series: Yomiuri 15-9-1 | Winner plays (1) Hanshin Tigers

Neither Yomiuri nor DeNA stood much of a chance against the mighty Hanshin Tigers this season, but both hovered around the .500 mark for most of the season and ultimately secured their postseason tickets with weeks to spare. The sides clashed in last year’s Central League Championship Series under very different circumstances. The pennant-winning Giants began with an automatic 1-0 advantage, but the surging BayStars under Daisuke Miura proved unstoppable, riding their momentum all the way to a Cinderella Japan Series title. That series, which went the distance, was defined by strong pitching and clutch hitting, as no team scored more than four runs in any game, and five of the six contests were decided by two runs or fewer.

This time, DeNA enters as the favorites, boasting the best record in NPB since August 28 and looking primed for another deep playoff run. One thing working in Yomiuri’s favor is their strong performance in the season series, which they won comfortably, though they dropped four of their final five head-to-head games, and have a very poor record overall on the road.

Pitchers

*October 4 Update: Griffin has been ruled out for the entire postseason*

Some teams opt to save at least one of their top starters for the grueling Championship Series, making it difficult to project probables, especially since things may change depending on the outcome of Game 1. But it’s clear the BayStars have far more stability in the rotation right now. Their front three consists of ace workhorse Katsuki Azuma (2.19 ERA, 97 FIP-), joined by Anthony Kay (1.76 ERA, 83 FIP-) and Andre Jackson (2.33 ERA, 107 FIP-), who both proved instrumental in last year’s postseason while Azuma was sidelined.

Sweeper pitcher Yutaro Ishida (3.57 ERA, 91 FIP-) and the oft-injured Kentaro Taira (3.00 ERA, 95 FIP-) have both thrown very well over the past month and remain in the mix. The same goes for rookie Yu Takeda (1.69 ERA, 104 FIP-), who has produced results in a small sample since being called up. Disgraced former Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer is also aiming for a comeback from a late-season injury, though his performance this year has hardly justified a postseason rotation spot (4.34 ERA, 114 FIP-). Mid-season signing Shintaro Fujinami (3.43 ERA, 99 FIP-) is a wild card. He may be deployed as a swingman at some point.

Meanwhile, the Giants have struggled to find reliable innings beyond Iori Yamasaki (2.10 ERA, 88 FIP-), who is having a career year using a splitter/splinker as his primary weapon. Foster Griffin (1.62 ERA, 63 FIP-) has been truly elite when healthy, but has logged only 78 innings and just returned from injury. Of course, one could argue that the limited workload isn’t inherently bad, as it means he may have saved his bullets for the games that matter most. Yuji Akahoshi (2.68 ERA, 106 FIP-) is sidelined with a shoulder issue and will need a quick rehab to ready up for the series.

Southpaw Haruto Inoue (3.70 ERA, 109 FIP-) has shown occasional flashes of dominance, but the long ball has plagued him, and he has been in poor form throughout the second half. Even Shosei Togo, the team’s ace since 2022, has regressed into one of NPB’s worst starters this season (4.25 ERA, 114 FIP-), making him a risky option in a short, high-stakes series, though Shinnosuke Abe may have no other choice. A bullpen game is a possibility, too.

Where the Giants can compete, though, is in the bullpen. Cuban Raidel Martinez (1.14 ERA, 62 FIP-) and sidewinder Taisei (2.14 ERA, 85 FIP-) form arguably the best one-two punch in the country, combining for 46 saves and 48 holds. Veteran Kota Nakagawa (2.26 ERA, 80 FIP-) is always a reliable lefty, while Rule 5 Draft pick Eito Tanaka (2.15 ERA, 112 FIP-) has proven to be a valuable pickup as a groundball machine. Other options include Kyle Keller (3.11 ERA, 115 FIP-), Shunsuke Miyahara (2.63 ERA, 90 FIP-), and reigning Rookie of the Year Hiromasa Funabasama (2.81 ERA, 136 FIP-).

On the BayStars side, flamethrower Taisei Irie (3.02 ERA, 123 FIP-) opened the year strong but lost the closer role after a string of blown saves. Hiromu Ise (2.89 ERA, 69 FIP-) has been solid in his place, while Rowan Wick (0.84 ERA, 49 FIP-) is enjoying a standout season as a setup man. Yuya Sakamoto (3.25 ERA, 85 FIP-) and Kohei Morihara (2.57 ERA, 62 FIP-) also figure to play key roles, both bringing postseason experience from last year’s run. Daita Miyagi (2.09 ERA, 87 FIP-) is a good lower-leverage arm.

ERA+	99	105
FIP-	103	99
HR%	2.0	1.9
K%	20.4	20.8
BB%	6.9	7.2
GB%	49.3	49.8
CSW%	28.4	29.7

Position Players

Over the past month, DeNA has led NPB in team OPS, with Yomiuri right behind in second. Neither team steals many bases, but DeNA has far superior base runners overall, with an NPB-best +15.5 UBR compared to Yomiuri’s NPB-worst -13.6. Defensively, the Giants are better on the infield, while the BayStars boast the stronger outfield. As a whole, though, the fielding gap between the sides is pretty negligible.

The Giants managed to stay afloat for three months without superstar Kazuma Okamoto (.328 AVG, 214 OPS+), but now the lineup looks far more formidable. Alongside Okamoto, Yomiuri features several potential X-factors that can break a series open: the streaky but dangerous Trey Cabbage (17 HR, 137 OPS+), future Hall of Fame outfielder Yoshihiro Maru (.263 AVG, 126 OPS+), and three-true-outcomes slugger Richard Sunagawa (11 HR, 102 OPS+), who was acquired in a May trade.

They also have steady catcher Yukinori Kishida (7 DRS, 138 OPS+), breakout shortstop Yuta Izuguchi (1 DRS, 131 OPS+), and second-half standout Raito Nakayama (.265 AVG, 117 OPS+), among lesser pieces like Gakuto Wakabayashi (8 SB, 100 OPS+), Shunsuke Sasaki (.252 AVG, 85 OPS+), and Makoto Kadowaki (6 SB, 3 DRS).

Second base defensive wizard Naoki Yoshikawa (9 DRS, 117 OPS+), who missed last October and is once again rehabbing from an injury, is expected back in time for the playoffs. Likewise, veteran backstop Takuya Kai (6 DRS, 104 OPS+) is hoping to return from injury.

The BayStars’ lineup slumped hard in June and July, including an infamous three-game sweep at Tokyo Dome from June 27-29, where they were shut out in every game. Desperate for offense with slugger Tyler Austin sidelined, the team added Mike Ford (.195 AVG, 55 OPS+) and Dayan Viciedo (.250 AVG, 109 OPS+), with the latter still seeing key pinch-hit opportunities and spot starts when Austin rests.

Austin has been excellent since returning in August (11 HR, 151 OPS+), but new injuries to fellow core stars Shugo Maki (16 HR, 140 OPS+) and Toshiro Miyazaki (.277 AVG, 119 OPS+) have left DeNA leaning heavily on Keita Sano (14 HR, 115 OPS+) and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (18 HR, 153 OPS+) for pop down the stretch. Maki and Miyazaki are both planning to return for the playoffs.

At the top of the order, Tatsuo Ebina (.283 AVG, 131 OPS+) and reigning Japan Series MVP Masayuki Kuwahara (10 SB, 116 OPS+) have started to click as reliable table-setters. Like Yomiuri’s Kishida, Yuudai Yamamoto (13 DRS, 103 OPS+), who was hurt during the 2024 playoffs, ranks among the league’s best two-way catchers. Shortstop, however, remains a glaring weakness. Keito Mori impressed during last year’s postseason, but this time the job looks to belong to youngster Taiki Ishikami (-3 DRS, 98 OPS+).

OPS+	107	101
K%	20.2	18.1
BB%	7.5	6.6
HR	96	106
wSB	-6.8	-2.0
TZR	9.0	-8.0
DRS	-18	-10

My Prediction: DeNA in 3

DeNA’s superior pitching depth, strong September, home-field advantage, and Miura’s familiarity with high-pressure games make them the favorites in this series. A monster performance from Okamoto or Cabbage could easily carry Yomiuri across the finish line, but the Giants’ shaky rotation situation, combined with Abe’s questionable decision-making in last year’s playoffs, does little to inspire confidence.

Rotation: DeNA by a lot
Bullpen: Yomiuri by a little
Contact: DeNA by a little
Power: Tied
Fielding: Tied
Base Running: DeNA by a lot
Management: DeNA by a little

(3) ORIX Buffaloes @ (2) Hokkaido Nipponham Fighters

Best of 3 Series | All Games at Es Con Field Hokkaido
Season Series: Tied 12-12-1 | Winner plays (1) Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

After ending a six-year playoff drought, Tsuyoshi Shinjo’s Fighters were just two outs from elimination in last year’s Wild Card Series against the Lotte Marines when Chusei Mannami saved their season with a dramatic game-tying home run. They went on to take the series before being swept by the SoftBank Hawks in the Championship Series. This year, the Fighters have their sights set on revenge against SoftBank, a team they battled neck and neck with for much of the campaign.

Standing in the way are the Orix Buffaloes, who enter the playoffs as the No. 3 seed for the first time in franchise history. It wasn’t always smooth sailing, but rookie skipper Mamoru Kishida steadied the club after last season’s fifth-place stumble, guiding them back into contention. The two sides were evenly matched during the regular season, splitting their head-to-head slate at 12-12-1. Prior to 2024, Orix had reached the Japan Series in three consecutive seasons, winning it all in 2022 and pushing Hanshin to a Game 7 in 2023.

Pitchers

On the surface, Orix didn’t stack up well on the mound this season, especially by their own lofty standards, currently holding an underwhelming 88 ERA+ with just a few games left to play. Yet they still possess two weapons that almost no other club can match in Hiroya Miyagi (2.37 ERA, 62 FIP-) and flamethrower Shunpeita Yamashita (1.37 ERA, 46 FIP-).

Miyagi has fully assumed the ace mantle from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, cementing himself as a bona fide top-five starter in NPB since 2023. Yamashita, who was out of action until September with a nagging back injury, has looked as electric as ever with a 39% strikeout rate since returning and is arguably the most talented pitcher in Japan.

Those two alone are capable of carrying Orix, but crafty workhorse Allen Kuri (2.55 ERA, 96 FIP-), youngster Ryuhei Sotani (3.79 ERA, 89 FIP-), sinkerballer Anderson Espinoza (3.01 ERA, 82 FIP-), and experienced southpaw Daiki Tajima (3.13 ERA, 101 FIP-) could also factor into the series.

Nipponham counters with its own one-two punch in Hiromi Itoh (2.48 ERA, 75 FIP-), the PL leader in innings and strikeouts, and Koki Kitayama (1.63 ERA, 77 FIP-), who ranks second in ERA. Plus, Kota Tatsu (2.09 ERA, 77 FIP-) looks like the odds-on favorite for Rookie of the Year, giving the Fighters ample depth. Notably, Shinjo held Itoh back until the second round last year, so if he takes a similar approach this time, soft-tosser Takayuki Katoh (3.40 ERA, 118 FIP-) or up-and-comer Ren Fukushima (2.41 ERA, 107 FIP-) would be in line to start.

The Fighters also have plenty of swingmen that were starters at one point or another this season and can provide length out of the pen, including Ruei Yang Gu Lin (3.62 ERA, 96 FIP-), Sachiya Yamasaki (2.23 ERA, 110 FIP-), Shoma Kanemura (2.93 ERA, 94 FIP-), and even 19-year-old Reo Shibata (2.92 ERA, 67 FIP-).

When it comes to the bullpen, the Buffaloes spent much of the year searching for reliability, hampered in part by injuries to key arms like Seiryu Kotajima and Yuki Udagawa. But stability has shown up late, thanks to the trade for fireballer Sho Iwasaki (2.12 ERA, 60 FIP-), the arrival of Kaede Yokoyama (1.10 ERA, 52 FIP-), the resurgence of Soichiro Yamazaki (4.62 ERA, 152 FIP-), and prospect Kaito Saiki’s (1.42 ERA, 70 FIP-) promotion into higher-leverage situations.

Those additions give Kishida far more choices to go alongside the core of Taisuke Yamaoka (4.50 ERA, 78 FIP-), Luis Perdomo (3.17 ERA, 99 FIP-), and closer Andres Machado (2.28 ERA, 47 FIP-). One concern is that Nobuyoshi Yamada (4.35 ERA, 97 FIP-) is their only left-hander, potentially leaving them vulnerable to platoon matchups.

The Fighters have had months where their pen was statistically the best in NPB, but it’s been quite spotty in September. For better or worse, the roles are rather fluid with Seigi “Justice” Tanaka (1.35 ERA, 70 FIP-), rookie sensation Taisei Yanagawa (1.02 ERA, 79 FIP-), and flamethrower Yukiya Saito (1.35 ERA, 78 FIP-) all sharing save opportunities. Taisho Tamai (2.25 ERA, 83 FIP-) and Takahide Ikeda (2.45 ERA, 90 FIP-) have also been solid groundball pitchers. Veterans Naoki Miyanishi (3.20 ERA, 100 FIP-) and Kenta Uehara (1.16 ERA, 85 FIP-) are entrusted as lefty specialists.

ERA+	88	124
FIP-	92	93
HR%	1.1	2.0
K%	19.7	20.0
BB%	7.2	5.8
GB%	48.6	46.3
CSW%	28.0	28.1

Position Players

Orix and Nipponham are both well above league average offensively, with the Buffaloes leading NPB in OPS+ and the Fighters pacing the league in home runs. On the basepaths, Nipponham’s relative aggressiveness has produced +5.7 UBR, while Orix sits at a poor -10.0. The defensive gap is even wider as the Fighters rank among the league’s best units, particularly in the outfield, while the Buffaloes own dreadful TZR and DRS marks, which have contributed to some inflated ERAs in the pitching staff.

Orix’s lineup is as deep as they come, with nine regulars owning an OPS+ above 100. What’s even more surprising is that the list doesn’t include star Tomoya Mori, who missed a chunk of the season with injury and has struggled to find his form in limited action (.205 AVG, 88 OPS+). Instead, the Buffaloes have thrived through a true collective effort.

Masahiro Nishino (.283 AVG, 137 OPS+) has hit for more power than ever before while still keeping his strikeout rate under seven percent. Yutaro Sugimoto (16 HR, 136 OPS+), Keita Nakagawa (.287 AVG, 130 OPS+), Yuma Tongu (12 HR, 113 OPS+), and Kenya Wakatsuki (.268 AVG, 110 OPS+) have all bounced back strongly from disappointing 2024 seasons, while Taishi Hirooka (9 HR, 109 OPS+) is in the midst of a career year.

Yuma Mune (.236 AVG, 96 OPS+) is still pedestrian, but has improved from last year. Ryo Ohta (.284 AVG, 117 OPS+) has had a brutal September but has been productive overall at the keystone, and the slump has gone largely unnoticed thanks to shortstop Kotaro Kurebayashi’s massive second-half surge (.259 AVG, 114 OPS+).

The big blow is the loss of batting-title contender Ryoma Nishikawa (.310 AVG, 133 OPS+), who is expected to miss the entire postseason with a fractured tibia. His absence forces inexperienced players like Yusuke Mugitani (12 SB, 92 OPS+) and Ryoto Kita (4 DRS, 91 OPS+) into more prominent playing time in the outfield.

Comparatively, Nipponham’s offense is pure boom-or-bust: they lead NPB by wide margins in home runs, fly-ball rate, and isolated power, but also rank dead last in both strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate. The team’s top three bats, Franmil Reyes (32 HR, 153 OPS+), Chusei Mannami (20 HR, 116 OPS+), and Shun Mizutani (12 HR, 136 OPS+), embody that very profile, combining for 120 extra-base hits while each carrying strikeout rates north of 23%.

But that’s not to say the Fighters’ lineup isn’t dynamic. The corner infield duo of Kotaro Kiyomiya (.270 AVG, 112 OPS+) and Yuki Nomura (.268 AVG, 114 OPS+), along with utilityman Yuya Gunji (.297 AVG, 136 OPS+), have provided more well-rounded production. Catcher Yua Tamiya (8 DRS, 96 OPS+), shortstop Tatsuki Mizuno (-5 DRS, 114 OPS+), and center fielder Ryota Isobata (5 DRS, 25 SB) have all held down premium positions successfully. Depth has also factored in, with players like Kazunari Ishii (6 HR, 104 OPS+), Yuma Imagawa (.261 AVG, 125 OPS+), and Kota Yazawa (10 SB, 91 OPS+) delivering big moments over the course of the season.

OPS+	109	106
HR	95	128
wSB	-1.5	0.3
K%	17.4	21.1
BB%	7.1	7.4
TZR	-68.9	40.8
DRS	-73	0

My Prediction: ORIX in 3

Nipponham will be expected to win at home, but Orix will be tough to crack if Miyagi and Yamashita are at their best, and their lineup has the firepower to punish a Fighters bullpen that is beginning to show cracks. Shinjo’s unorthodox management has led to its share of quirky decisions, yet has also allowed a young core to blossom and cultivated a deep roster where everyone contributes. That pays off over the grind of a full season, and the Fighters are indeed the better squad overall. But in a best-of-three, the Buffaloes stack up well, and an upset is certainly possible.

Rotation: Orix by a little
Bullpen: Tied
Contact: Orix by a lot
Power: Nipponham by a lot
Fielding: Nipponham by a lot
Base Running: Nipponham by a lot
Management: Nipponham by a little